Monday, February 16, 2009

Blame it on EXCEL Spreadsheets

I have a theory that the collapse of the financial systems over the last 20 years ;whether it is the subprime,internet bamboozles,telecommunication misfirings etc is caused by EXCEL..and I refer to the spreadsheet offering by MicroSoft and not the isotonic drinks nor the massage place in Sukhumvit.

EXCEL have enabled massive amount of numbers with complicated formulas linked to multitudes of appendices to be easily managed and crystallized.Within seconds of changing a parameter,a new set of numbers can be generated.If done manually,it may take millions of manhours assuming the men are not prone to making mistakes along the way.If they are like me..a wanderer in the mind it will take forever.

This sort of power over numbers is given to anyone with a few hundred bucks to spare and a modicum of intelligence to create the spreadsheets.Microsoft have made it so easy...its like click,click,drag,click..even a hairdresser can do that.Of course,the smarter ones especially those with Doctorates in Physics can create even more awesome "models" of unlimited variability to reflect the complexities of the world we live in.

Thus,the spreadsheeters are the new Masters of the Universe and the artist that can create the most complex models are the Demigods of the Universe.With these fantastic financial modelling,every single mystery of the financial universe can be predicted to the last nano bits.
From these complex models grew the industry that created the hedges,the derivatives,the derivative hedges,the insured hedge derivatives and other magnificient "risk averse"instruments of wealth.

And as everyone basically uses EXCEL to an extent,there are convergence within the various Demigods spreadsheet creations and the models became self prophecial.But eventually,someone must have realised that the Emperor was nude...and that started the collapse.

Thus my conclusion is the financial collapse would not have happened if we only have VisiCalc one page maximum spreadsheets running on Apple 2 with 40MB hard disk.

But we still need EXCEL..we can't live without the early morning "what ifs " with the EXCEL.And no bankers will give loans with a one page spreadsheet.And,furthermore without EXCEL the bankers will realise that we have no idea of what our business is all about.

Thus,my recommendation is that we continue with EXCEL but MicroSoft have to introduce some new "functionalities".One is the moral test function and the next is business sense function.If there is failure to meet the criteria of the two new functions,then the user will be reverted to the one page VisiCalc option.

Mr Gates>For further enquiries and meeting on this proposal please email me and despatch 2 first class return tickets.

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